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303 bytes added ,  10:23, 12 March 2010
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'''ROUGH DRAFT'''
 
'''ROUGH DRAFT'''
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Given the pace of social, economic, and technological change, it is difficult predict what the context for Sugar Labs will be in 2015. However, we can frame our goals on some relatively stable ground: the developmental needs of young learners will not change; the value of a Constructionist approach will elusive to formal measurement but obvious to parents and teachers who see it in practice; and the disadvantaged (e.g, the poor, women and children) will need the affordances provided by learning. Less certain is the future of Free Software—personally, I think that its numerous advantages will be better recognized and it will be the obvious choice for education. The answer to another question, the extent to which learning becomes "cloud-based", is to me less certain. It is hard to ignore the dramatic rise in numbers and reach of "smart" phones, it is hard to imagine even in 5 years that an affordable infrastructure will be available to support a primarily on-line learning experience for most children. "Under a tree" collaboration will remain central.
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Given the pace of social, economic, and technological change, it is difficult predict what the context for Sugar Labs will be in 2015. However, we can frame our goals on some relatively stable ground: the developmental needs of young learners will not change; the value of a Constructionist approach will elusive to formal measurement but obvious to parents and teachers who see it in practice; and the disadvantaged (e.g, the poor, women and children) will need the affordances provided by learning. Less certain is the future of Free Software—personally, I think that its numerous advantages will be better recognized and it will be an obvious choice for education. (Not the only choice, but particularly well suited for making progress towards the sub-goals of "meaning and significance" and "conceptual understanding". Sugar will be used as much, if not more, outside of the formal classroom setting, where young learners will build upon their classroom experiences.) The answer to another question, the extent to which learning becomes "cloud-based", is to me less certain. It is hard to ignore the dramatic rise in numbers and reach of "smart" phones, it is hard to imagine even in 5 years that an affordable infrastructure will be available to support a primarily on-line learning experience for most children. "Under a tree" collaboration will remain central.
    
In five years:
 
In five years:

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